The Czech economy will grow by 3.5 percent this year and 4.6 percent next year. This follows from the latest forecast published today by the Chamber of Commerce. Despite the lack of chips and other raw materials, the industry will be strong this year, but household consumption will remain cautious.
The contribution of foreign trade to this year’s economic growth will be negligible, despite the significant dynamics of imports and exports, the chamber said. Due to higher inflation, household consumption will increase in real terms this year due to the abolition of the super-gross wage rather than due to the growth of nominal wages. Unemployment will remain low in 2022. The chamber estimated it at 3.3 percent.
According to the forecast, the nominal average wage will increase by 3.4 percent this year, and by 4.8 percent in 2022. The inflation rate should fall from 3.4 percent this year to 2.4 percent. The annual average of the koruna’s exchange rate next year will be CZK 25.10 per euro after this year’s CZK 25.9 / EUR.
“Unlike a number of specialized Czech and foreign workplaces, we are more sensitive to downside risks for this year. This is mainly due to the epidemic development and lack of inputs due to supply chain interruptions. We assume that these risks will manifest themselves at least until the middle of next year.” the chamber pointed out.
According to her, the structural change in the Czech economy, which was accelerated by the coronavirus crisis, can be perceived as both a positive and a negative risk at the same time.
In the current April macroeconomic forecast, the Ministry of Finance left the estimate of economic growth for this year at 3.1 percent and for next year it estimates the acceleration of the growth rate to 3.7 percent. The Czech National Bank will publish a new macroeconomic forecast, in which economists expect an improvement in the economic growth estimate, in the afternoon. In its May forecast, the CNB expected economic growth of 1.2 percent this year and 4.3 percent next year.
The prediction of the Chamber of Commerce, which uses the general model of Česká spořitelna’s economic balance, is based on a chamber survey among entrepreneurs across industries, branches and regions.