Czech exports could fall by CZK 500 billion this year, a year-on-year decline of 16 percent and the foreign trade balance could fall by 80 percent to CZK 20 billion, according to estimates by the Association of Exporters.
These results can be expected provided that the next wave of coronavirus does not cripple the economy and that the German economy recovers. The Association of Exporters stated at the Czech Export Forum.
In the event of another wave of COVID-19 or the German industry’s failure to recover, the export shortfall could be half as high, and the foreign trade balance could end in negative numbers. The development may also be influenced by the development of the koruna’s exchange rate, which is now strengthening sharply.
The coronavirus crisis erased a roughly four-year growth period. It returned the Czech Republic in terms of exports to the level of 2016. The loss of production in the first quarter of this year amounted to 23 billion. Economists expect a loss of around CZK 180 billion in the second quarter.
After the coronavirus crisis, the economy will be different. Only the strongest and best prepared will survive. The Czech Republic, as a small export country, must react to changes very quickly. “We will now make decisions for which we will be responsible for years to come. Another good and bad decision is writing about another part of the economy,” chairman of the Association of Exporters, Jiří Grund said.
Czech exports reached a record volume of CZK 4.6 trillion in 2019 after CZK 4.4 trillion in 2018. Last year, the foreign trade surplus rose by 50.5 billion to 149 billion CZK. Exports increased by two percent and imports by 0.6 percent.